Elon Musk has lengthy been open about his desires of utilizing SpaceX to unfold humanity’s presence additional into the photo voltaic system. And final weekend, he gave an up to date define of his imaginative and prescient for a way the corporate’s rockets may allow the colonization of Mars.

The serial entrepreneur has been clear for plenty of years that the primary motivation for founding SpaceX was to make people a multiplanetary species. For a very long time, that appeared just like the sort of aspirational purpose one may set to encourage and inspire engineers moderately than one with a practical probability of coming to fruition.

However following the profitable launch of the corporate’s mammoth Starship car final month, the thought is starting to look much less far-fetched. And in a speech on the firm’s amenities in South Texas, Musk defined how he envisions utilizing Starship to ship tens of millions of tons of cargo to Mars over the subsequent couple of a long time to create a self-sustaining civilization.

“Starship is the primary design of a rocket that’s truly able to making life multiplanetary,” Musk stated. “No rocket earlier than this has had the potential to increase life to a different planet.”

In a barely rambling opening to the speech, Musk defined that making people multiplanetary might be an important insurance coverage coverage in case something catastrophic occurs to Earth. The purple planet is the obvious selection, he stated, because it’s neither too shut nor too removed from Earth and has most of the uncooked substances required to help a functioning settlement.

However he estimates it should require us to ship a number of million tons of cargo to the floor to get that civilization up and working. Starship is central to these plans, and Musk outlined the corporate’s roadmap for the huge rocket over the approaching years.

Key to the imaginative and prescient is making the car totally reusable. Which means the primary hurdle is proving SpaceX can land and reuse each the Tremendous Heavy first stage rocket and the Starship spacecraft itself. The second of these challenges will probably be more durable, because the car should survive reentry to the ambiance—in the latest take a look at, it broke up on its manner again to Earth.

Musk says they plan to exhibit the flexibility to land and reuse the Tremendous Heavy booster this yr, which he thinks has an 80 to 90 p.c probability of success. Assuming they will get Starship to outlive the intense warmth of reentry, they’re additionally going to aim touchdown the car on a mock launch pad out at sea in 2024, with the goal of having the ability to land and reuse it by subsequent yr.

Proving the rocket works and is reusable is simply the very first step in Musk’s Mars ambitions although. To attain his purpose of delivering 1,000,000 individuals to the purple planet within the subsequent 20 years, SpaceX must massively ramp up its manufacturing and launch capabilities.

The corporate is at present constructing a second launch tower at its base in South Texas and can also be planning to construct two extra at Cape Canaveral in Florida. Musk stated the Texas websites could be principally used for take a look at launches and growth work, with the Florida ones being the primary hub for launches as soon as Starship begins business operations.

SpaceX plans to construct six Starships this yr, in keeping with Musk, however additionally it is constructing what he referred to as a “large manufacturing facility” that may allow it to massively ramp up manufacturing of the spacecraft. The long-term purpose is to provide a number of Starships a day. That’s essential, in keeping with Musk, as a result of Starships initially gained’t return from Mars and can as a substitute be used as uncooked supplies to assemble constructions on the floor.

The corporate additionally plans to proceed growth of Starship, boosting its carrying capability from round 100 tons as we speak to 200 tons sooner or later and enabling it to finish a number of launches in a day. SpaceX additionally hopes to exhibit ship-to-ship refueling in orbit subsequent yr. Will probably be essential to replenish the gasoline used up by Starship on launch so it has a full tank because it units off for Mars.

These missions will depart when the orbits of Earth and Mars convey them shut collectively, an alignment that solely occurs each 26 months. As such, Musk envisions complete armadas of Starships setting off collectively at any time when these home windows arrive.

SpaceX has achieved some early work on what must occur as soon as Starships arrive on the purple planet. They’ve recognized promising touchdown websites and the infrastructure that may want establishing, together with energy era, ice-mining amenities, propellant factories, and communication networks. However Musk admits they’ve but to start out growth of any of those.

One obvious omission within the discuss was any element on who’s going to be paying for all of this. Whereas the purpose of creating humankind multiplanetary is a noble one, it’s removed from clear how the endeavor would make cash for individuals who put up the funds to make it doable.

Musk estimates that the price of every launch may finally fall to only $2 to $3 million. And he famous that earnings from the corporate’s Starlink satellites and Falcon 9 launch car are at present paying for Starship’s growth. However these income streams are unlikely to cowl the 1000’s of launches a yr required to make his Mars desires a actuality.

Nonetheless, the actual fact that the questions today are extra about economics than technical feasibility is testomony to the speedy progress SpaceX has made. The dream of turning into a multiplanetary species is probably not science fiction for for much longer.

Picture Credit score: SpaceX