After watching Lucy pull the soccer from Charlie Brown’s foot on the final potential second time and time once more, now we have discovered our lesson and are subsequently hesitant to imagine that 2024 would be the 12 months of the IPO market’s return. It could or could not occur, however we’re not betting on it.

Different sources of liquidity are subsequently high of thoughts — there’s a towering pile of personal firms in want of an exit, or a bailout. Current analysis from Cowboy Ventures’ Aileen Lee underscores how shortly illiquid wealth was accrued within the personal markets within the final decade, and the way uncommon exits have develop into for unicorns and different richly valued startups.

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Lee discovered that the variety of unicorns within the U.S. had elevated 14 occasions over the previous 12 months, reaching 532 in 2013 from simply 39 in 2013. Nonetheless, the speed at which unicorns went public moved in the wrong way — solely 7% of unicorns at present have discovered an exit, down from 66% of the preliminary cohort. Be aware that TechCrunch, like many publications, focuses solely on personal unicorns whereas Cowboy Ventures can also be counting those who have gone public.

This places startups in a troublesome spot. However the excellent news is that some untraveled and overgrown exit paths have an opportunity of opening up this 12 months. The dangerous information is that these avenues could supply costs far lower than what many startups are prepared to just accept. Name it painful worth discovery.

Let’s discuss personal fairness, startups, and their potential marriage this 12 months.

Why do dangerous tidings make for excellent news typically?