An inside congressional memo considered by TechCrunch casts robust doubt on Rocket Lab’s declare that its Neutron rocket will probably be prepared for launch in time to satisfy an important contract deadline from the House Power.

“In mild of public reporting and media strain, Rocket Lab has escalated their marketing campaign to misrepresent their launch readiness in an effort to realize aggressive benefit over incumbents and different new entrants by on-boarding into NSSL Part 3 Lane 1 on the first alternative in 2024,” the memo, considered by TechCrunch, says. “Public data and data out there to employees affirm that Neutron has no credible path to launch by 12/15/2024.”

Rocket Lab declined to remark for this story.

Such memos are used to tell congressional officers on explicit points and make suggestions on proposed actions. This memo, which was written by congressional staffers and circulated on Wednesday to different workplaces, together with these within the Senate Armed Companies Committee, states that Rocket Lab has “repeatedly assured” these staffers that the corporate has a reputable path to launch by December 15.

That’s the date by which the House Power’s House Techniques Command mentioned launch suppliers should be able to fly with the intention to qualify for launch contracts beneath a program referred to as Nationwide House Safety Launch (NSSL) Part 3. These contracts will reportedly be price a number of billions of {dollars} to cowl launches from 2025 via 2034.

In response to trade suggestions, House Techniques Command modified its procurement technique for the following batch of nationwide safety launch contracts to accommodate newer launch suppliers. Underneath the brand new technique, the contracts are cut up into two teams: Lane 1 is for newer rockets, whereas Lane 2 is for established suppliers that may fulfill the complete vary of mission necessities.

Whereas Rocket Lab has by no means publicly confirmed that it has bid beneath Lane 1, in an earnings name on Tuesday, CEO Peter Beck prompt the corporate was pushing laborious to finish Neutron growth by the tip of this 12 months with the intention to meet that deadline: “We’re monitoring that Lane 1 fairly carefully and we spent plenty of time with the House Power to advocate for that Lane 1,” he mentioned. “Therefore the explanation why we’re pushing so laborious to get the automobile in a launch for this 12 months, as a result of it’s a gating on-ramp to Lane 1.”

As Beck went on to notice, suppliers who don’t meet this 12 months’s readiness date can have one other alternative to bid on contracts the next 12 months.

Neutron is Rocket Lab’s medium-lift automobile and is being added as a complement to its profitable small Electron rocket. Neutron will probably be powered by a brand new engine referred to as Archimedes, and the corporate is aiming to begin sizzling fireplace assessments of that engine round March; Beck mentioned the corporate will know extra about how near the timeline they’re “as soon as Archimedes breathes fireplace” throughout testing.

Uncertainties round Archimedes’ sizzling fireplace assessments are “the largest concern” in Rocket Lab’s claims, the memo argues.

Past the precise rocket testing, a lot of the timeline depends upon completions to the launch pad and different infrastructure at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility, which is being constructed by a state company, Virginia Industrial House Flight Authority. The most up-to-date RFP issued by that company for the launch infrastructure has an anticipated completion date of November 29, 2024 — which leaves a scant two weeks till the launch deadline. It’s unclear whether or not any extra RFPs are forthcoming or when the RFP schedule was finalized. VCSFA didn’t reply to TechCrunch’s request for remark by publication time.

On the corporate’s earnings name, analysts additionally requested Beck concerning the RFP, and he pointed to Rocket Lab’s observe file of growing launch pads briefly timelines. However the congressional memo argues that the Neutron pad has considerably completely different “scale, propellant sort, and structure” in comparison with the corporate’s present pads. It additionally highlights proprietary timelines shared by different launch suppliers that counsel there may be a lot work left to be included in RFPs by the VCSFA.

The memo features a slide from 2023 ready by House Techniques Command that implies the company will start supply choice within the second quarter of the fiscal 12 months and announce the Lane 1 awards in the midst of the third quarter, which runs from April to June.